Yangnong Chemical (600486): Improved trade frictions boost demand for dicamba
Recent Company Status On the evening of December 13, the State Council 四川耍耍网 Information Office and relevant ministries and antiques press conferences introduced the progress of China-US economic and trade cooperation, and issued the “Statement on China-US Phase I Economic and Trade Agreement.”Agreement on the text of the first-stage economic and trade agreement was reached.
At the same time, Han Jun, deputy minister of agriculture and rural areas, said at a press conference that the implementation of this agreement will significantly increase China ‘s agricultural imports from the United States.
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htm commented that the company’s dicamba sales are expected to gradually improve.
Due to the reduction of US soybean planting area in 2019 due to the trade friction between China and the United States, and due to the heavy rains in the US planting season and the delay in the promotion of Brazil wheat straw-tolerant gene soybeans, the company’s wheat straw contraction has expanded in 2019.
With the improvement of Sino-U.S. Trade friction, we expect the US soybean planting area to rebound, and the company’s wheat straw shrinking sales volume is expected to improve. At the same time, we expect that wheat straw-tolerant genetic soybeans are expected to be promoted in Brazil in 2021, and continue to be optimistic about wheat straw shrinking demand.prospect.
The market price of agricultural pyrethroids fell sharply, but the company’s core customers’ price changes decreased and smooth performance changes.
The current market price of kefir and bifenthrin is 26.
5 / 280,000 yuan / ton, a 29% / 34% drop in price compared to the same period last year, but because the company ‘s large customer orders account for a relatively high proportion of major customers and the price change of the pyrethrin order is relatively small, we expect the company ‘s agricultural pyrethrin business profit fluctuations to gradually.
With the construction of Youjia Phase 3, 4 and 5 projects, the growth of the company is highly certain in the medium and long term.
The environmental impact assessment of the third-phase project of Youjia has been approved. The company expects that the third-phase project of Youjia is expected to enter the commissioning phase in 2Q20. The third-phase project of Youjia will build the company’s dominant varieties of agricultural chrysanthemum esters and intermediates of 10,825 tons, as well as high-efficiency grass-covering energy, thiopheneHerbicides such as benzylone and fungicide products such as anisole, propiconazole.
At the same time, we expect that the expansion projects of Youjia Phase IV bifenthrin, flutolamine and santhrin will be accelerated, and the 2020 Youjia Phase 5 project filing is also expected to be launched.
The construction of Youjia Phase 345 project is expected to help the company’s performance continue to grow in the medium and long term.
Estimates suggest that we maintain our 2019 profit forecast11.
US $ 8.6 billion. Taking into account the price range for amphethrin, we lower our profit forecast for 2020 by 10% to 12.
55 ppm with a profit forecast of 15 in 2021.
At present, the company expects a corresponding 2019/20 P / E ratio of 16 / 15x and maintains a target price of 75 yuan, corresponding to 22% growth space and 19 / 15x P / E ratio of 2020/2021, and maintains an outperform industry rating.
Risk Youjia project progress exceeded expectations, pyrethrin sales were lower than expected