A-share transactions break through trillions for 4 consecutive days
What kind of concepts should be followed by policy-friendly technology stocks?
Come to Sina University of Finance and listen to the opening column of the Trading Day Financial Morning Post.
Is the bull market coming?
A-share turnover exceeded 1 trillion for 4 consecutive days!
A quick glance at how the chief executives of the 12 major brokerage firms view the market outlook
This is not 4 ordinary numbers!
This is the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen for 4 consecutive trading days!
It’s broken trillions!
Although the Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly today, the turnover was still as high as US $ 122.1 billion, showing a gradual upward trend.
Image source: Oriental Fortune “Financial No. 1 Academy” statistics, the first day of the year except for the opening of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.
After 72% to 2746.
After 61 o’clock, starting on February 4, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 10.
36%, and regained 3,000 points.
In fact, as early as February, Pacific Securities proposed that according to the experience of SARS, the market turning point will most likely appear around mid-February, about half a month before the inflection point.
At the moment, the market conditions are so hot, the chief executives of the securities companies have been unable to bear it, and they have thrown out their own judgments on A shares.
Although there have been recent “disgraceful” incidents such as the Huachuang Securities conference call, the investment research capabilities of most securities firms are still worthy of recognition. No, the “Financial No. 1 Academy” will bring you the wonderfulThe market research and judgment.
Zhang Qiyao, chief strategy analyst of Guosheng Securities, strengthened and became the “Dinghai Shenpin” of the A-share market.
It has been revised many times since 2018. The biggest gain and growth in the A-share market in the future is “increasing the proportion of equity allocated to residents’ funds and converting from direct holdings to indirect forms such as funds, insurance, and wealth management. Institutional strength willContinuous enhancement. ”
The reason why this round of market competitiveness surpassed expectations was that on the first day of the plunge, the “shock is short-term” and “will quickly get out of the golden pit”. The source of confidence is the significant strengthening of institutional strength.
In the end, it was also judged: after the sharp fall on the first day of the year, the market as a whole remained rational, and the panic mood reversed and spread; the funds of various institutions remained stable, and there was no longer a centralized replacement. Instead, it became a “stabilizing sea” for the stable market and “engine”.
As the subsequent epidemic gradually eases, it is expected that the risk appetite will enter a period of repair.
The market is expected to step out of the golden pit and usher in a rebound.
And the structure may become the focus of determining the level of excess returns.
Liao Zongkui, Chief Strategy Analyst, Yuekai Securities Research Institute Theme: The market is still worth looking forward to Since February, the changed liquidity policy has been looser, and excess liquidity is more likely to accumulate in the financial market, which is why we see continuous stock market turnoverReason for zoom.
The recovery of the economy still needs to be reduced, and liquidity is still expected to remain more relaxed, while counter-cyclical fiscal and industrial policies are still in the stage of gradual landing in the future, and the market is still worth looking forward to.
If big financial surges, the market is likely to try to challenge the highs of mid-January.
Of course, the external market has recently adjusted slightly, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether excessive redundant inflows cause interference.
The theme of Qin Peijing, chief analyst of CITIC Securities’ A-share strategy: the three signals of the end of the first round of “filling the pit” market this year The first round of “filling the pit” market of A-shares this year is mainly driven by loose liquidity, and after the various signals are clear, Its subsequent kinetic energy will tend to decline, and the market will also enter a period of peace.
A shares are still in the middle of the “well-off bull” channel. It is expected that the second round of growth driven by the entry of industrial capital and the replacement of fundamentals will start in the second quarter.
The market ‘s short-term minimum capital inertia inflow and upward mobility, but as the current policy focus shifts to orderly resumption of work, monetary policy goals have grown more steadily, and macro easing has been difficult to exceed expectations.
This round of market capital rotation is also coming to an end, and individual investor entry is still the main driver in the near future.
It is recommended to pay close attention to the three types of signals at the end of the “fill in the pit” market, including fundamental signals such as resumption of work and February data, liquidity signals such as interest rate trends, and market signals such as transaction volume and style differentiation.
Dai Kang, chief strategy analyst of GF Securities (Jin Qilin analyst) Topic: At present, the A-share market will usher in an increased risk appetite, and the logic and investment opportunities will change accordingly.
The discount rate consists of two parts: interest rate and risk appetite.
Looseness has become a consensus in the market. Residents must meet two conditions to enter the market (the actual interest rate is lower and lower, and the money-making effect). The money-making effect is basically met. It is closer to November 2014 and better than the beginning of 2019. The increase in market risk appetite will drive a new round of residentsEntering the market and loosening refinancing, the change in the stock market’s rising structure has also been confirmed from the side.Continue to be bullish, “forward performance” is better than “spot performance”, and the growth of technology is from “hard” and “soft”.
Theme of Chen Guo, chief strategy analyst of Anson Securities: A-shares have attractive allocation of assets. The medium-term trend of China’s economic transformation and upgrading has not changed. Under the current downward trend of increasing global interest rates, A-shares have attractive allocation of assets.
In the short term, the spread of the epidemic situation has been better resolved in China as a whole, and the resumption of work in manufacturing and other departments has gradually accelerated. However, we must be alert to the spread of the epidemic overseas.
Subject: Chief Financial Analyst Wang Hanfeng of CICC Topic: Focus on market liquidity characteristics, growth style may continue to dominate the A-share market. Since the first day of the holiday, the A-share market has rebounded strongly.As for the impact, the growth style represented by the GEM index has performed more brilliantly. The post-holiday low has risen 26% in the 14 trading days, and the new and old economies are clearly differentiated.
Looking ahead, after the market continues to rebound, some investors are beginning to worry about whether the short-term market is excessive.
The possibility of continuous short-term fluctuations in the continuous growth of the market may increase, but after short-term fluctuations, the characteristics of local market activity may continue to be driven by loose liquidity. This probability may be derived from the judgment of current and future market environment characteristics: 1) stable growthPolicy environment and the profit-making effect of the stock market continue to show the background, the overall market liquidity is generally loose; 2) the overall macro growth with the policy support showing a “weak” pattern, so that the market’s interest in sectors closely related to macro growth may only bePeriodic; 3) Some of the medium and long-term themes are highly deterministic and the overall trend is good. There has been a profit effect and potential for absorbing speculative funds, including areas related to the 5G technology cycle, new energy automobile industry chain, advanced manufacturing, consumptionAnd medicine; 4) The growth style may also be supported by some policies, such as refinancing policies, government support for promoting industrial innovation and upgrading, and so on.
Zhang Yidong, Chief Strategy Analyst, Industrial Securities Topic: A-shares will follow the trend in the short term, and A-shares will follow the trend in the short term. They will trade around the “policy combination boxing” and select the core assets of China’s strategic development direction in the medium and long term.
In the process of implementing short-term policy dividends, the fund will remain accommodative, and the strong short-term market is expected to continue, at least without systemic risks.
Washing is more healthy. The A-share market has continued to grow since the Spring Festival, and it has begun to imply too many “buffalo expectations”, and there may be short-term shocks like “cold spring”.
Do not chase high in the short-term, or use short-term to long-term, in accordance with the logic of the medium and long-term time to value stocks or “grow stocks” around growth stocks.
With the lower risk-free rate of return and the implementation of economic stimulus policies, the core assets of traditional industries are becoming more attractive to allocating funds; the key to the cost of emerging growth stocks lies in stock selection and the “gold content” of core assets in advanced manufacturing.
Wang Delun, chief strategy analyst of Industrial Securities (Jin Qilin analyst) Topic: Great innovation growth continues to look strong This week, various stable growth policies are gradually changing from the decision-making level, relevant ministries and commissions to local and physical operating departments.
In the short term, the market is still expected to continue to promote liquidity improvement and increased risk, continue to maintain 深圳spa会所 a positive attitude towards the market, and grasp the growth opportunities of large innovations and technologies.
The preliminary baseline is about to enter March. Monthly and quarterly economic data will be gradually introduced, and the market will gradually return to the logic of fundamental operation. Due to the relative delay in the resumption of work, the fundamental data may be lower than expected, which will cause market conditions.Disturb, influence.
Seeing last week ‘s February 4th quarterly monetary policy implementation report stated that “scientific and robust response to counter-cyclical adjustment efforts”, on the 20th, the one-year interest rate of LPR was reduced by 10BP, and on February 21, the Politburo meeting was committed to “activeFiscal policy “must be more proactive and play a role in policy finance; prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate”, but from the policy to the actual effect, to the investor fundamentals are expected to completely repair before the process of stability exists.
At this time, investors are choosing “good stocks” and actively setting up “good timing” for “good track”.
However, under the guidance of the “Embracing the Era of Rights and Interests”, the country has continued to be bullish on A-share bulls under the guidance of the “quartet” of resident configuration, institutional configuration, and global configuration.
Zhang Xia, chief strategy analyst of China Merchants Securities (Jin Qilin analyst) Topic: The market is still expected to remain strong On February 21, the Politburo set the fiscal and monetary policy to be more active, and indicated several key development directions, and the policy is more positive for the stock market.
In the short term, funds will accelerate into the market, and the market is still expected to remain strong. The securities firms, pharmaceuticals, communications, and computer sectors have attracted major attention from funds.
Recently, global commodity prices have seen gold and the US dollar has risen. With the Fed accelerating the expansion of the table, global funds have exposed the United States as a safe haven.
At present, major stocks such as US stocks, European stocks, crude oil, and copper are relatively stable and have little impact on A shares, but it is necessary to start taking global economic risks into consideration. In this case, it will be difficult to adopt China’s monetary policy.
Li Jinfeng, Chief Strategy Analyst, National Gold Securities. Theme: The market is still positive. According to the Fed ‘s observation, the probability of the Fed ‘s interest rate cut in June rose to 54%, and the expected rate cut twice during the year.Contradictions; Expansion departments are expected to further strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, increase benchmark interest rates, and reduce currency standards such as targeted RRR adjustments in a timely manner; currently facing a relatively weak internal demand environment, stimulate effective demand, and stabilize employment as the focus of current policy developmentA positive point of the positive fiscal policy is the “new infrastructure”; it is expected that the proportion of A-shares “income” will gradually increase, and foreign exchange increment will flow into the A-share market at that time; investment advice: clear in the February A-share monthly reportIt puts forward that “counter-cyclical policies will repair investor pessimism, and technology is the main line of deployment.”
At this point in time, this view is still maintained and the market is still active.
Tong Yugen (Jin Qilin analyst), chief strategy analyst at Haitong Securities. Theme: Be optimistic and keep rational. The bull market pattern unchanged at the beginning of 2019: Bull-bear cycle cycle, corporate profits bottomed out, asset allocation favored A shares, and the epidemic only affected the stage.Sexual profit.
Focus on the goal and look at profitability. Technology + brokerages that are in line with the transition direction are expected to lead, and the technology profit cycle is picking up. Early-stage companies are better, similar to 2013.
The rapid rise after the recent market slump is due to abundant liquidity. We still need to pay attention to the short-term fundamental distortions, and Hong Kong stocks are already replacing.
Since February 4th, the A-share market has risen like a rainbow. The Shanghai Composite Index has once again returned above 3000 points. This is the 46th time. Investors have ridiculed how many days can they stay above 3000 points?
2019/1/4 The SSE Composite Index has opened the sixth round of bull market at 2440 points and will eventually overlook 3,000 points. It is strategically optimistic and rational in optimism. It is also normal if there are some small twists and turns in the short term after rapid growth.
Everbright Securities Chief Strategy Analyst Xie Chao (Jin Qilin analyst) Topic: Trend extrapolation stage, patient positions last week, “Policy loose” continued to strengthen to promote the market’s rally, and the new financing strategy helped to activate SMEs’ incremental growth and restructuring.Interest rate cuts continue to drive down the cost of physical financing. The low end of short-term interest rate restructuring reflects ample liquidity in the market, and the risk premium is significantly lower.
The Central Political Bureau meeting on Friday released positive policy signals. The meeting pointed out that the inflection point for the development of the national epidemic has not yet arrived. In response, “proactive fiscal policy should be more active and promising”, and “prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate”, indicating that future policiesCounter-cyclical adjustments will still maintain resistance.
The current market assessment implied growth expectations have been fixed to 5.
4%, the market is transitioning from rational expectations repair to the trend extrapolation stage. Before the epidemic inflection point arrives, the optimistic expectation of policy loosening will still be extrapolated, and the addition of incremental funds will obviously provide the market with an extra-trend driving force.
It is still recommended to continue patiently holding positions at present, causing concern about the direction of countercyclical adjustment.
In terms of configuration, we will continue to focus on TMT. The contactless economy will usher in mid-to-long-term opportunities and require 5G key technical support. Consumers will pay attention to medicine and online consumption, as well as cars that benefit from counter-cyclical adjustments. They will focus on infrastructure-related building materials and machinery.